He took a noticeable step forward figure-wise when closing hard to nearly win the 9f Haskell in his last.

Pros: Hard-trier has yet to break through against graded company but hasn’t missed the board in four tries in his graded starts he seems to always be right there at the end. #15 NY TRAFFIC (Cross Traffic/ Graeme Hall), 20-1 If he finishes in the top three, we likely won’t cash a single ticket. In a race that looks chalky to begin with, we prefer others underneath the logical players to spice up exotics, and the main value in the race may lie within trying to keep the third choice off the board entirely. Although Audible outran his pedigree, a son of Into Mischief is always a play against to hit the board at 10f in our eyes.

The feeling here is that he will be in need of an oxygen mask over the final furlong, and that his considerable accomplishments and connections may lead him to underlay status in the wagering. The draw didn’t do him any favors either, as he figures to lose at least some ground clearing the field to get to the lead out of the widest post of all.Ĭonclusion: He figures to lead this field a long way, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he is able to hold off NY Traffic or Honor AP going a longer distance out of a wider post while facing more pace pressure, let alone to envision him holding off the favorite. Two races back, rival Honor AP caught him easily coming home at 9f. The eye test would seem to confirm that, as he was all out while shortening strides to hold off today’s foe NY Traffic in his Haskell win, where he finished the final 3/8 in a slow :38.95. His breeding suggests that this distance may be further than he wants to go, as he is one of just three colts in the field that has neither a sire or damsire Average Winning Distance (AWD) above 7.0 (6.8/6.9). The scratches of Art Collector and King Guillermo helped his cause, as the pace up front now figures to be pretty moderate by Derby standards.Ĭons: The seven-week layoff since the Haskell is a historical obstacle to overcome, although that may mean less in 2020 since this race is being run in September. Has accumulated an impressive resume, winning four of five starts and finishing second in the other. In his last, he emerged victorious at 9f in his second try at the distance, holding on to win the Haskell while posting impressive career best speed figures, and his second consecutive triple digit Brisnet figure. Bob Baffert trainee was impressive out west this winter, winning the 8f Sham and 8.5f San Felipe wire to wire without being challenged. Pros: Speedy and talented need-the-lead type figures to be the one they all have to catch. Good luck to everyone playing this incredibly peculiar horse race. That leads to more economic wagering opportunities for the general public, but also likely limits the absolute financial windfall that used to result from the $1 minimum bet.Īs always, the colts are organized by running style, with sire and damsire listed along with top speed figures around two turns. For the first time ever, we won’t be making any outright or exacta wagers on the Kentucky Derby, and will concentrate solely on nailing the trifecta and superfecta, the latter of which is now a $0.10 minimum.

As a result, we will see the heaviest favorite of my lifetime, and a relatively short field of 16.įrom a wagering standpoint, this leads to a dramatic change in strategy, unless you have a good reason to try to beat Tiz The Law completely, which we do not. Most notably, we lost at least a half dozen solid colts along the way (two this week) that could have enhanced the quality of this field considerably. Running the Kentucky Derby in September certainly changes a lot of things. A strange year deserves a strange race, and we certainly have that here.

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